NoaIzumiCO2 Fairy Tales in Global Warming, by Gregory Young
January 14th 2009 23:35
Another AGW-skepticism piece, this one from American Thinker. It’s from a scientist, but is sadly (and typically) not very scientific. Although it has a fitting title.
Really Long Link
CO2 as less than 0.04% of the atmosphere
Which means a lot less than the author would have you believe. What he omits is that over 99% of the atmosphere contributes nothing to the greenhouse effect. 78% is nitrogen (not a GHG), 21% is oxygen (not a GHG), and 1% is argon (not a GHG). The amount of atmospheric CO2 is still much less than GHG water vapor (more on that further down), but to compare it as a greenhouse gas to the whole of the vast-majority-non-greenhouse gas atmosphere is purposely misleading.
CO2 concentrations were much higher (6-7000 ppm) 500 million years ago.
What he doesn’t mention is that the sun was most likely fainter at the time, so that CO2 concentrations would have had to have been much higher just for the Earth to be the same approximate temp.
Really Long Link
Really Long Link
It changed naturally before.
So? No one’s saying it didn’t, and no one’s saying natural influences suddenly stopped. This claim is like saying that no one died from gunshots before 1400, so all the modern day statistics on gun violence are false. There were no guns before, therefore there must be none now.
CO2 has been rising for the past 18,000 years
True. What the author doesn’t mention is the rate of increase. About 18,000 years ago (the height of the Wurm glaciation), atmospheric CO2 level was about 190 ppm. 17,800 years later, it was 280 ppm (0.5 ppm rise per century). 150 years after that, it was 320 ppm (26.7 ppm rise per century). 50 years after that (present day), it is 384 ppm (1.3 ppm per year)
Really Long Link
And we know for a fact that the rise of the last two hundred years is primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Really Long Link
“Indeed, simple observation reveals how much warmer it has been in the past (~20-22o C), and for longer periods of time, compared to today (~14o C.) whereas CO2 concentrations have been steadily declining. CO2 does not cause Global Warming. These findings are exactly opposite to what AGW alarmists hysterically declare.”
Um, maybe the good doctor should have read the passage again before putting this out. Doesn’t it support the exact point he says it doesn’t? He did proofread this, right?
Water vapor is 95% of the greenhouse effect.
This claim comes from a rather notorious website, referenced in the article; in fact, wherever you see this claim, chances are that it references that site. I’ll do a full analysis on it at some point in the future. For now, suffice it to say that they aren’t able to back up their claim with scientific evidence.
Water vapor can’t be 95% of the greenhouse effect, because CO2 alone accounts for 9 to 30% of the GH, and that one, I can back up with scientific evidence.
Really Long Link
Really Long Link (PDF file)
Really Long Link (From Realclimate.org)
Humans contribute only 0.28 % of greenhouse gases
This is calculated on the same website as the water-being-95%-of-the-GHG claim, and depends on it. Aside from that, the calculation makes other errors, such as the false claim that most of the rise in GHGs is due to natural causes. The number is completely wrong.
Water vapor was ignored by the IPCC.
Not ignored, exactly, but once again, Gristmill can explain it better than I can. Water vapor is different because of its very short residence time compared to other GHGs.
Really Long Link
97% of CO2 flux is natural.
97% of world CO2 output is from natural sources. But around 98% of world CO2 output is absorbed by natural carbon sinks, including growing plants, soil organic matter, and the ocean, meaning that if there were no artificial sources of CO2, there would be no overflow and the atmospheric CO2 level would be stable. Human emissions have upset the balance, since human carbon emissions are not countered by human carbon sinks.
CO2 doesn’t stay long in the atmosphere.
Depends on what you mean by “long,” I guess. CO2 lasts for a hundred years in the atmosphere, on average.
Really Long Link
And why is CO2’s lifetime so important, while water vapor’s much shorter lifetime is unmentioned?
CO2 is vital to life on Earth.
And as the author states, there’s plenty of natural CO2 going back and forth, so what’s the problem? No one’s pushing to wipe out all CO2 on Earth, just put a lid on the industrial sources of it.
And does its importance to the biosphere mean that it’s not a greenhouse gas? It’s like saying that water is essential to life, therefore it shouldn’t be possible to drown in it.
Truly fairytales of global warming. If this wasn’t in American Thinker, I’d swear it would be in the Onion.
Really Long Link
CO2 as less than 0.04% of the atmosphere
Which means a lot less than the author would have you believe. What he omits is that over 99% of the atmosphere contributes nothing to the greenhouse effect. 78% is nitrogen (not a GHG), 21% is oxygen (not a GHG), and 1% is argon (not a GHG). The amount of atmospheric CO2 is still much less than GHG water vapor (more on that further down), but to compare it as a greenhouse gas to the whole of the vast-majority-non-greenhouse gas atmosphere is purposely misleading.
CO2 concentrations were much higher (6-7000 ppm) 500 million years ago.
What he doesn’t mention is that the sun was most likely fainter at the time, so that CO2 concentrations would have had to have been much higher just for the Earth to be the same approximate temp.
Really Long Link
Really Long Link
It changed naturally before.
So? No one’s saying it didn’t, and no one’s saying natural influences suddenly stopped. This claim is like saying that no one died from gunshots before 1400, so all the modern day statistics on gun violence are false. There were no guns before, therefore there must be none now.
CO2 has been rising for the past 18,000 years
True. What the author doesn’t mention is the rate of increase. About 18,000 years ago (the height of the Wurm glaciation), atmospheric CO2 level was about 190 ppm. 17,800 years later, it was 280 ppm (0.5 ppm rise per century). 150 years after that, it was 320 ppm (26.7 ppm rise per century). 50 years after that (present day), it is 384 ppm (1.3 ppm per year)
Really Long Link
And we know for a fact that the rise of the last two hundred years is primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Really Long Link
“Indeed, simple observation reveals how much warmer it has been in the past (~20-22o C), and for longer periods of time, compared to today (~14o C.) whereas CO2 concentrations have been steadily declining. CO2 does not cause Global Warming. These findings are exactly opposite to what AGW alarmists hysterically declare.”
Um, maybe the good doctor should have read the passage again before putting this out. Doesn’t it support the exact point he says it doesn’t? He did proofread this, right?
Water vapor is 95% of the greenhouse effect.
This claim comes from a rather notorious website, referenced in the article; in fact, wherever you see this claim, chances are that it references that site. I’ll do a full analysis on it at some point in the future. For now, suffice it to say that they aren’t able to back up their claim with scientific evidence.
Water vapor can’t be 95% of the greenhouse effect, because CO2 alone accounts for 9 to 30% of the GH, and that one, I can back up with scientific evidence.
Really Long Link
Really Long Link (PDF file)
Really Long Link (From Realclimate.org)
Humans contribute only 0.28 % of greenhouse gases
This is calculated on the same website as the water-being-95%-of-the-GHG claim, and depends on it. Aside from that, the calculation makes other errors, such as the false claim that most of the rise in GHGs is due to natural causes. The number is completely wrong.
Water vapor was ignored by the IPCC.
Not ignored, exactly, but once again, Gristmill can explain it better than I can. Water vapor is different because of its very short residence time compared to other GHGs.
Really Long Link
97% of CO2 flux is natural.
97% of world CO2 output is from natural sources. But around 98% of world CO2 output is absorbed by natural carbon sinks, including growing plants, soil organic matter, and the ocean, meaning that if there were no artificial sources of CO2, there would be no overflow and the atmospheric CO2 level would be stable. Human emissions have upset the balance, since human carbon emissions are not countered by human carbon sinks.
The Carbon Cycle
CO2 doesn’t stay long in the atmosphere.
Depends on what you mean by “long,” I guess. CO2 lasts for a hundred years in the atmosphere, on average.
Really Long Link
And why is CO2’s lifetime so important, while water vapor’s much shorter lifetime is unmentioned?
CO2 is vital to life on Earth.
And as the author states, there’s plenty of natural CO2 going back and forth, so what’s the problem? No one’s pushing to wipe out all CO2 on Earth, just put a lid on the industrial sources of it.
And does its importance to the biosphere mean that it’s not a greenhouse gas? It’s like saying that water is essential to life, therefore it shouldn’t be possible to drown in it.
Truly fairytales of global warming. If this wasn’t in American Thinker, I’d swear it would be in the Onion.
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Anime Bottle
Thanks for reading. Glad you liked it.
Comment by Anonymous
This article states that "over 99% of the atmosphere contributes nothing to the greenhouse effect." What isn't included in your 100 level course was humidity, water vapor, CFCs, etc. all of which do in fact contribute and contribute much more to any alleged greenhouse effect than CO2 would. Water absorbs 18 times more efficiently in these energy ranges than CO2 and is 10,000 times more prevalent than CO2. CO2 can't contribute more than water. So if your theory depends on CO2 as the bad guy, you're simply wrong.
The reality is, the oceans absorb most of the energy from the sun and they act as a heat pool that then warms the atmosphere (that's why coastal temps don't vary as much as inland temps). They also produce most of the O2.
The global greenhouse gas scare is a political power grab designed to frighten people into giving up their liberty and treasure for a bag of carbon credit beans.
Comment by NoaIzumi
Fine Politics
Anime Bottle
Tell you what, Anon, read the article again, more carefully this time, and I'll give you a little time to modify your comment (or at least provide some refs backing your claims up.)